Domino's Pizza Stock Still Looks Cheap - The Best DPZ Stock and Options Plays Here for Value Investors
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) still looks cheap here, as I wrote two weeks ago. As a result, shorting out-of-the-money (OTM) DPZ puts in one-month expiry periods works well here, given Domino's Pizza's cheap valuation.
Also, buying in-the-money (ITM) calls 6 months or longer away, financed with OTM put income, is another great play for less risk-averse investors. I discussed both plays in a Feb. 17 Barchart article, and this article will look into their performance.
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DPZ is at $397.00 today, higher than where it was almost a month ago when I wrote the Feb. 17 article ahead of earnings ($374.48).
However, when earnings were released pre-market open on Feb. 23, DPZ shot up to $400.36 and closed the next day at a $414.20 peak close. So, since then, DPZ has retraced this higher move. It might make sense to do another short-put play.
But first, what is DPZ stock worth, and how did our last recommendation work out?
DPZ Stock Still Looks Cheap
I wrote in a Feb. 23 Barchart article, after the Domino's Pizza earnings release and its huge dividend hike, that DPZ was worth between $425 and $475 per share ("Domino's Pizza Hikes Its Dividend By 14.3% After Free Cash Flow Rises 29% - Value Buyers Love DPZ Stock.")
The $475 price target was based on its average dividend yield in 2025 (1.67%):
$7.96 dividend per share (DPS) / 0.0167 = $476.67 (i.e., 20% upside)
The $425 price target was based on its free cash flow margin (13.6% in 2025, according to Stock Analysis) and analysts' revenue forecasts: $5.39 billion over the next 12 months (NTM):
$5.39b x 0.136 = $733 million NTM FCF
So, using a 5.0% FCF yield, its value is $14.66 billion (i.e., $733m/0.05), which is $1.31 billion more than its market cap today of $13.35 billion, i.e., +10% higher:
$397 x 1.10 = $436.70 price target (PT)
So, the updated PT range is now between $437 and $477 per share, i.e, +10% to 20% higher.
Analysts also have similar upside. For example, Yahoo! Finance reports that the average of 34 analysts' PTs is $478.58, and AnaChart's survey of 24 analysts' PTs is $463.60.
Shorting OTM DPZ Puts Works
On Feb. 17, I discussed shorting the March 20 DPZ put option at the $350.00 put option strike price, which was 6% lower than the DPZ stock price then ($374.48). The premium received then was $7.70, or a 2.20% yield ($7.70/$2.20) for 31 days to expiry (DTE).