DALLAS, Texas — There was a very obvious hurdle on Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s path to the Democratic Senate nomination in Texas: Electability. And with less than two weeks to go before the March 3 election, she has not been able to clear it.

When she first announced her campaign for Senate on the last possible day in November, it seemed like the Texas congresswoman was in the driver’s seat. Former Rep. Colin Allred dropped out of the race as soon as it became evident Crockett would run, giving her a chance to consolidate Black voters in the state. Her national profile as an anti-Trump warrior and her reputation as a strong fundraiser meant she would have the name identification and cash to make herself the frontrunner in a battle with state Rep. James Talarico.

With early voting now underway, however, it’s clear doubts are lingering in voters’ minds about Crockett’s ability to win in November even though she and her allies have relentlessly worked to push back on the idea she can’t triumph in a general election.

At the root of the debate is not ideology — both Crockett and Talarico are mainstream liberals — but questions about Crockett’s assertions she can win simply by motivating Democratic base voters, especially Black voters and Latinos, to turn out. Talarico, by contrast, often discusses his religious beliefs and the role they play in politics, a message that could appeal to a broader electorate in a conservative state like Texas.

And some Democratic voters think Talarico’s message is more likely to work in November.

“I love Jasmine,” Celinda Martinez, a retiree from Pflugerville, told HuffPost this week at a rally for Talarico. “My concern is, Texas is so red. I feel we have a better opportunity — as much as I love her, and if she’s a candidate who wins this primary, I’m behind her 1,000% — but I think we may have a better opportunity with Talarico because he could draw in the Evangelicals and some of those moderate Republicans.”

Talarico allies have also pushed the idea Crockett can’t win, with a super PAC backing him running ads noting Crockett is “Republicans’ favorite candidate” because she would likely lose in a general election.

The pro-@jamestalarico Super PAC Lone Star Rising is up with this negative spot against @JasmineForUS across the state. #TXSen pic.twitter.com/PBw6KdIiY9

The idea has merit: The National Republican Senatorial Committee bragged about spending cash on polling to convince Crockett to run, and conservative pundits seemed eager to suggest a blow-up between Stephen Colbert and CBS over whether the Trump administration pushed to censor an interview with Talarico was actually a racist plot meant to boost him over Crockett.

The fracas netted Talarico $2.5 million in donations over a 24-hour period, cash he could use to extend an already-existing 4-to-1 spending advantage over her on TV, according to ad-buying sources.

A pro-Crockett super PAC this week released a poll showing her defeating Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the favorite in a messy three-way primary on the Republican side of the aisle also featuring incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Rep. Wesley Hunt. She’s also argued that her naysayers are misreading the electorate and that she can, in fact, win in November.

“We’ve done everything based on facts and data, and those who have argued that there’s a better chance for Talarico simply haven’t paid attention to the trends,” Crockett told HuffPost in an exclusive interview this week.

“What I did not anticipate was our governor also jumping in and spending money,” she added. “The governor decided to specifically spend against me right before the primary, and not my opponent, almost signaling that while they say that they believe I’m the better candidate to win, they’re putting their money on trying to keep me from winning.”

Republicans would rather face a partisan who often goes viral for her attacks against Trump and his Cabinet members, especially in a red state like Texas. Although they have a wild primary of their own to sort out, GOP operatives believe that Talarico would be formidable in the general election, especially if the ethically challenged, far-right Paxton manages to oust Cornyn and seize the GOP nomination.

Polls of the Democratic race have been sparse and all over the place. A University of Houston survey released last week put Crockett ahead of Talarico by 8 points, while an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll last month found Talarico leading Crockett by 9 points. Other surveys have shown a tied race with many undecided voters.

The race has grown more contentious in recent weeks, including accusations of racism by Crockett and her supporters. The congresswoman has criticized Talarico for failing to condemn what she called a “straight up racist” ad from a super PAC supporting his campaign because it darkened her skin color. The ad used a darkened filter throughout its 30-second run time, including for other people.

Asked by HuffPost about Crockett’s comments, Talarico declined to respond directly, urging reporters to fact-check “allegations that get reported on as news” for “clicks” on the internet.

And then there was the firestorm earlier this month after a Black influencer accused Talarico of calling Allred a “mediocre Black man,” prompting Allred, who is supporting Crockett, to go off on Talarico in a video posted to social media. Talarico insisted instead that he had described Allred’s “method of campaigning as mediocre” when he ran against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in 2024, a contest he had lost by 8 points.

Crockett, a 44-year-old former civil rights attorney, has also dismissed doubts about her ability to win in a state like Texas — including from other Democrats — as a “dogwhistle.”

“It’s already been ugly. I’m a Black woman in America, so I don’t know that I really necessarily expected otherwise,” she told HuffPost about the campaign ads flooding the state. “I wouldn’t have gotten in this race if I didn’t think that I had a shot beyond all of the additional obstacles that typically come with someone with a unique candidacy like mine, so that’s just kind of what it is.”

Some of Crockett’s campaign moves have also left Democratic operatives scratching their heads, including the types of events she has chosen to attend and her campaign’s decision not to spend money on television ads until late in the primary race. Crockett’s campaign argued they didn’t need to run ads early because of her high name recognition with voters, but that changed this month as Talarico gained steam. She also doesn’t appear to have a campaign manager, according to NOTUS, and her campaign can be opaque and sometimes difficult to reach.

But her supporters maintain that an unconventional approach is exactly what’s needed right now as congressional Democrats struggle to stop Trump’s agenda in Washington.

“She says the quiet part out loud,” said Stormy White, a woman from North Richland Hills who came to hear Crockett speak at a “Not My President’s Day” rally in Dallas during the federal holiday earlier this week. “You might not like the approach, you might not like how she talks, but she is what we need in Texas right now.”

The event drew about 50 people outside Dallas City Hall, where Crockett spoke briefly about her stand against Trump and his immigration crackdown as people waved “Bad Bunny for President” signs and held up old photos of Trump with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

“D.C. is full of cowards,” Crockett proclaimed. “Everywhere I look … on both sides of the aisle. People are scared, they don’t want to face the type of hate I face on a daily basis.”

Talarico, a charismatic 36-year-old Presbyterian seminarian and former middle school teacher, has gained ground by blending religious language with progressive arguments in favor of LGBTQ+ rights and reproductive rights, a style that has drawn comparisons to that of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. CBS’s decision not air his interview with Colbert on “The Late Show” slotted perfectly into his populist stump speech railing against all the corporations getting handouts in Trump’s America.

“These are the same people who ran against cancel culture, and now they’re trying to control what we watch, what we say, what we read. This is the most dangerous kind of cancel culture, the kind that comes from the top,” Talarico said at a rally in Austin on Tuesday. “They went after Stephen Colbert for telling the truth about Paramount’s bribe to Donald Trump. Corporate media executives are selling out the First Amendment to curry favor with corrupt politicians.”

The packed rally in Quail Creek, a predominantly Hispanic area of town, drew hundreds of mostly young people. But the crowd itself was mostly white, hinting at some challenges Talarico might face in a general election. Crockett, by contrast, has argued that her deep support in the African American community makes her uniquely positioned to expand the electorate in November by drawing more minority voters to the polls.

Both campaigns have ramped up their outreach to Latinos, a key voting bloc in the state, amid widespread backlash to ICE and Trump’s immigration policies.

“I think Latino voters on the border are up for grabs,” one Democratic operative involved in the race told HuffPost. “Both candidates have a lot of room to make up with name ID there. I do think that’s where the election is going to be won.”

Talarico is scheduled to hold a rally in El Paso this weekend, while Crockett is due to hold events in San Antonio.

Most Senate Democrats harbor doubts about Crockett, though they are staying on the sidelines for now. Having come up short in prior elections, Democrats don’t see winning the Texas race as a key part of their path to a Senate majority in 2026. Still, a few Democratic senators have waded in. Crockett this week announced an endorsement from Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), while Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) is backing Talarico.

“She has an edgy, energizing, engaging way about her,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) told HuffPost. “He has a way of connecting and engaging and talking about his values that I think also moves many others. And there may be a difference between who has an edge in the primary and who is more competitive in a general. But I would be literally just be guessing.”

At the “Not My President’s Day” anti-Trump rally in Dallas on Monday, attendees said they were trying to be strategic about who to support in the Senate race.

“I like her where she is right now, which is a very strong advocate against Trump,” said Everett Upshaw, an attorney who resides in Crockett’s Dallas-area district. “I think we need a Senate candidate who can maximize the chances of winning, because we have to break the Republican control before it’s too late.”

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