Argus

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Mar 02, 2026

Sector(s)

Communication Services, Utilities, Energy, Technology, Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical

Summary

This week features the non-farm payrolls report for February, which comes out on Friday. Meanwhile, more big retailers will report, as earnings season winds down. As well, the new military conflict in Iran will bear closing watching, particularly if it lasts for more than a few weeks. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3%, the S&P 500 was down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq shed 1%. Year to date, the Dow is up 2%, the S&P 500 is higher by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq is down 2.5%. On the earnings calendar, MongoDB reports on Monday; Target, Best Buy, and CrowdStrike on Tuesday; Broadcom on Wednesday; and Costco on Thursday. About 96% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, and overall earnings are up 14% from last quarter. Information Technology, up 34%, and Industrials, up 17%, are leading the pack. At the bottom are Consumer Discretionary, down 0.2%, and Healthcare, up 1%, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. On the economic calendar, the non-farm payrolls report takes center stage and various Federal Reserve officials have public speaking engagements. Turning to other data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is forecasting for 1Q and calls for 3.0% growth. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast forecasts a rate of 2.4% for February, which matches the print for January. Mortgage rates ticked down three basis points last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 5.98%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices went up two cents last week and are at an average of $2.94 per gallon for regular gas.  The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is on March 18, and odds are at 6% for a 25-basis-point cut at that meeting, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. Taking a deeper dive into performance so far in 2026, a leading industrialized global stock market index, the ETF EFA, is up 9% year to date, while the leading emerging market ETF (EEM) is up 14%. U.S. growth stocks are down 6% year to date looking at ETF IWF, while value stocks

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