Is CLMT a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Calumet, Inc. on Stock Forester Capital’s Substack by Stock Forester. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CLMT. Calumet, Inc.'s share was trading at $28.72 as of March 19th. CLMT’s trailing and forward P/E were 23.06 and 11.35  respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels in North America and internationally. CLMT has already delivered strong returns, with the stock up 38% year-to-date and 88% over the past year, yet the underlying thesis suggests further upside as the company approaches a major inflection point.

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While its FY2025 results were largely in line with expectations, the market reaction overlooked a materially improved business profile, driven not by margin expansion yet, but by a significantly strengthened balance sheet and operational execution. The company has aggressively refinanced its debt, eliminating near-term maturities in 2026 and 2027, extending its revolver to 2031, and reducing net recourse leverage from 8.2x to 4.9x, effectively removing the refinancing overhang that previously defined the equity narrative.

Operationally, the Specialties segment continues to demonstrate structural strength, sustaining margins above $60 per barrel alongside meaningful cost reductions, improved throughput, and lower capital intensity, indicating durable earnings power. Performance Brands has also shown resilience, delivering consistent growth despite divestitures.

Meanwhile, Montana Renewables remains the most volatile yet highest-upside segment, with temporarily weak results overshadowing structurally lower operating costs and a favorable regulatory outlook. The anticipated Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) increase is expected to lift renewable diesel margins meaningfully, while the company’s SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) strategy provides a clearer earnings pathway through contracted premiums of $1–$2 per gallon, offering both downside protection and visibility into future demand.

The market continues to undervalue Calumet by anchoring to its legacy perception as a leveraged specialty chemicals business with volatile renewables exposure, failing to recognize reduced downside risk, improved cost structure, and validated asset value. Based on updated assumptions across segments, the stock is estimated to be worth ~$35 today, with potential to exceed $55 as SAF ramps and margins normalize, implying substantial near-term upside despite identifiable risks around execution, regulation, and commodity volatility.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) by Zerosumgame33 in April 2025, which highlighted the margin inflection in biodiesel markets and the upside potential of Montana Renewables driven by tightening supply-demand dynamics and RVO changes. CLMT's stock price has appreciated by approximately 189.80% since our coverage. Stock Forester shares a similar view but emphasizes on balance sheet improvement and SAF-driven earnings visibility.

Calumet, Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 17 hedge fund portfolios held CLMT at the end of the fourth quarter which was 18 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of CLMT as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

Disclosure: None.