Argus

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Mar 23, 2026

Sector(s)

Utilities, Basic Materials, Technology, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical

Summary

The war in the Middle East has now entered a fourth week and remains the major headline for geopolitics, as well as a source of concern for global investors. Otherwise, this is a quiet week for both economic and earnings news. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all shed about 2%. Year to date, all three indices are in the red, with the Dow lower by 5.2%, the S&P 500 down by 5.0%, and the Nasdaq off by 6.8%. Turning to the earnings calendar, most companies don't start to issue quarterly results again until mid-April. The big banks, which are the unofficial first reporters, kick off the new earnings season on Tuesday, April 14.  The economic calendar is also light, though many Federal Reserve officials will be on the speaking circuit. The impact of the war is starting to show up in economic forecasts. Atlanta Fed GDPNow now forecasts 2.3% growth for 1Q. That's down from 2.7% last week and 3.0% the week before. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast calls for 3.0% for March, a substantial move higher from the 2.6% estimate posted two weeks ago. Mortgage rates also made a big move higher, up another 11 basis points last week. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now at 6.22%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices jumped another $0.22 (after a climb of $0.48 last week) and are at an average of $3.72 per gallon for regular gas.  The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on April 29. Odds have pivoted from a rate cut to a rate hike. The likelihood of a rate hike is at only 12% -- but it's been a long time since there has been any forecast for an increase in rates. Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to be the next Fed chairman, is still making his way through the Congressional approval process. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell whose term as chairman expires soon, will remain on the FOMC. Taking a deeper dive into performance so far in 2026, a leading industrialized global stock market index, the ETF EFA, is down 3% year to date. The leading emerging market ETF (EEM) is up 1%. U.S. growth stocks are down 10% y

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