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The first day of spring on Friday blew in a sunnier forecast for containerboard producers seeking recognition of their recently announced price increases: Prices went up $40 per ton in March, following February’s unexpected $20 per ton dip, according to monthly data released in Fastmarkets RISI’s Pulp & Paper Week publication.

This is the first recognized linerboard price increase in 13 months, according to a March 22 note to investors from Jefferies. Moreover, the financial services firm called the increase a “surprising turn,” having just mentioned the low likelihood of such a move in an investor note two days prior to the index announcement. “Our contacts would be surprised if RISI reflects a price increase for March this Friday,” said the March 18 memo.

Analysts and other industry observers largely reported shock at the index charting a $20 per ton price drop for containerboard in February. They also cited that February’s downward movement would put at risk full recognition of producers’ $70 per ton increases that were slated for early March.

However, the new partial increase aligns with some experts’ expectations. BofA Securities analyst George Staphos said in a Feb. 20 memo following that month’s decrease: “We continue to expect a $40/ton increase in March across containerboard.”

Some observers hint that the $40 per ton increase for March approximates a mea culpa on Fastmarkets RISI’s part, offering partial recognition of most major producers’ recently announced $70 per ton increases. “This feels like a make up by RISI after getting fierce pushback from the industry after surprisingly cutting prices by $20/ton,” said the Jefferies note.

Michael Roxland, senior paper and packaging analyst at Truist Securities, said in a March 22 note to investors: “Sources cited March price increases by the large integrated players as a key factor in the [Fastmarkets RISI] March increase.”

Other emerging conditions support the March increase. For one, the war in Iran is driving up fuel prices, which increases manufacturing and transport costs.

In addition, January demand was steady or improved modestly, numerous fiber company executives reported during earnings calls earlier this quarter. Analysts suggest that trend appeared to hold through this month — at least for the time being.

“While anything is possible in this geopolitical uncertainty, our sense has been demand has held up so far,” Staphos said in a March 13 note.

The roller-coaster price movement has renewed questions about how the leading fiber pricing index arrives at its numbers and how accurately it reflects broader markets.

“We were surprised none of our contacts were surveyed by RISI for their price index, further illustrating a very small segment of the market they speak with,” Jefferies said in its March 18 note that referenced the February decrease. That reinforces the group’s comments in February, when it stated that “it’s always been odd the industry relied on RISI,” given the index covers a small, and decreasing, section of the containerboard market.

Fastmarkets RISI’s data only covers the open market, which experts generally put at less than 10% of the overall containerboard market. Fiber companies have repeatedly expressed frustration with the index movement over the last couple years, explaining it doesn’t reflect what’s actually happening more broadly.

Even so, numerous producers still use the index as a price alteration trigger written into customer contracts. Both Jefferies and BofA Securities have discussed in recent weeks that pricing resets generally only get triggered if the change is more than $20 per ton. “[S]o the net $20 increase over the last two months might not be a real needle mover yet” for producers such as International Paper, Packaging Corporation of America and Smurfit Westrock, according to Jefferies.

Box demand has been “steady with some large integrateds noting a slight uptick this month,” Roxland said. Analysts generally pointed to supply and demand dynamics starting to rebalance following the historic loss of nearly 10% of North American containerboard production capacity in 2025.

“The significant capacity reductions over the past year have helped lift operating rates to healthier levels, and we expect supply and demand to realign more sustainably over the long term,” said Xinnan Li, senior analyst at RaboResearch, in a March 2 containerboard report. “These reductions have effectively rebalanced the linerboard market, lifting operating rates to 93.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The full effects of the 10% capacity loss are starting to be felt considering the final facility shutdowns were finalized this quarter, according to analysts. Prior to that, the containerboard industry was in a yearslong state of oversupply. Now, early signs point to supply tightening up.

Friday’s PPW report was the first since that capacity pullback in which buyers noticed less containerboard supply, Jefferies said. Mill backlogs improved and some producers reportedly turned down orders in February “due to a lack of capacity,” Roxland said, also noting that some integrateds are starting to take maintenance downtime.

That said, multiple analysts have suggested the industry could experience a small amount of additional capacity cuts this year before supply and demand are considered to be rebalanced.

Fastmarkets RISI’s March containerboard price increase reinforces analysts’ expectations for producers to target another price increase this year to achieve the equivalent of full recognition for their announced $70 per ton price hikes.

Prior to Friday’s pricing report, some analysts had predicted companies would try for at least one more price hike this year.

BofA Securities anticipated companies would push for an approximately $40 to 50 per ton hike in the coming weeks, followed by a second $40 per ton hike in the second half of the year. Jefferies’ March 18 note said: “While our contacts still see containerboard prices moving higher in 2026, timing likely gets pushed out to April / May the earliest, and the market needs to see demand pickup at least seasonally.”

According to Truist’s Roxland, “Smaller producers appear to have pushed price less aggressively in March, delaying increases to April in a bid to retain critical volumes, setting the stage for a further increase next month.” If demand continues to hold steady or improve, and diesel and other input costs remain elevated in the coming months, Truist believes containerboard producers could announce another price increase in the late summer or early fall, he said.

RaboResearch in its March 2 report pointed to an expected $40 per ton increase this year that would reflect gradual industry demand recovery.

“While the recovery remains slow, the combination of improving demand, higher input costs, and a more concentrated producer landscape underpins our view of continued, incremental price gains,” Li said.

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