Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL) is set to report its first quarter earnings on March 27, with focus expected to be on fuel costs, near-term demand, and regional pricing trends, according to Bank of America analysts.

Carnival will be the first unhedged, commodity-exposed travel company to report earnings in the current environment, making its guidance particularly noteworthy, the bank’s analysts highlighted.

Rising fuel prices have prompted Bank of America to lower its 2026 EPS and EBITDA forecasts, estimating a $650 million reduction in EBITDA and a $0.47 decline in EPS.

“While the duration of higher fuel is unknown, we encourage investors to look past the fuel spike to 2027 forecasts, which could see more normalized prices,” they wrote.

Carnival’s exposure to fuel volatility is higher than some peers, with a 10% move in fuel prices potentially impacting Q1 2026 net income by $37 million and 2026 results by $145 million.

Regional trends and onboard spending will also be closely watched. Carnival’s Caribbean mix is expected to peak at 51% in 1Q26 before averaging 30% for the rest of the year. Europe and Alaska, accounting for 36% and 17% of later-quarter capacity, are additional areas of focus, though the analysts suggested recent weakness at other cruise operators may be specific to those companies.

For the quarter, Bank of America forecasts Carnival’s EBITDA slightly above guidance at $1.26 billion, with EPS of $0.17, largely in line with consensus expectations.

Constant-currency net yields are projected to rise 1.9%, while net cruise costs are expected to increase 5.2%, slightly below guidance.

The firm reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a $45 price target, implying upside from current levels of $26.