Argus

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Mar 26, 2026

Intermediate Term

Long Term

Summary

Crude oil has found some price equilibrium, although it doesn't really feel like it. For now, a flattish trajectory for the energy markets has taken some pressure off the equity markets, as the global markets tug-of-war seems to be at a standstill. The major indices have at least stopped heading lower, and that's a small victory based on the price action over the past month. The S&P 500 (SPX) is sitting near the same level booked four days ago. While the index broke slightly below its six-month range on an intraday and closing basis on March 20, it stayed below for only one day. The more-serious issue is that the SPX has closed below its 200-day average for a fifth straight day. Still, the index is only 39 points under the average, and one decent rally could repair the damage.   Stepping back, the SPX closed slightly below its weekly lower Bollinger Band (BB) last week, and it's possible the index will recapture the lower band this week. Historically, such an event has been a very powerful buy signal -- except during major corrections and bear markets. For instance, the last buy signals occurred in April of 2025, and with the move above the middle band, added confirmation to a signal in Ma

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