Argus

โ€ข

Mar 30, 2026

Sector(s)

Healthcare

Summary

The conflict in the Middle Ease remains the dominant (and a growing) geopolitical event, pushing all other news below the fold.  Drilling down to the purely economic implications, the war's effect on global energy markets is atop the worry list for many investors. Meanwhile, this will be a short week on Wall Street, with the stock market closed for Good Friday observance. Still, the U.S. government will be up and running on Friday and, as such, the jobs report will be released. Last week was another tough one for equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.9%, the S&P 500 declined 2.1%, and the Nasdaq shed 3.2%. Year to date, all three indices are showing losses, with the Dow, down 6.0%, the S&P lower by 6.9%, and the Nasdaq off by 9.8%. On the earnings calendar, there are a few scattered reports this week. Nike, McCormick and Restoration Hardware report on Tuesday; Conagra Brands on Wednesday; and Exxon Mobil on Thursday. The new earnings season unofficially kicks off on Tuesday, April 14, when several of the country's big banks report.  On the economic calendar, the Case-Shiller home price index is due out on Tuesday; retail sales on Wednesday; the U.S. trade deficit on Thursday; and then the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. As well, many Federal Reserve officials will be on the speaking circuit -- including Chairman Powell, who speaks at Harvard on Monday. The impact of the war is increasing evident in economic data. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is now calling for 2.0% growth in the first quarter, down from 3.0% a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast is at 3.2% for March, up from 2.6% three weeks ago. Mortgage rates also have pushed higher, up another 16 basis points last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.38%, according to FreddieMac. Finally, gas prices jumped another 24 cents, with the average price for a gallon of regular gas at $3.96.  The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on April 29. Odds have pivoted from a rate cut to a rate hike, though the odds are low at 4%. Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to be the next Fed Chairman, is still making his way through the Congressional approval process. Taking a deeper dive into performance so far in 2026, a leading industrialized global stock market index, the ETF EFA, is down 3% year to da

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