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3 things Nike investors need to watch with the stock plunging after earnings
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Investors are sprinting away from Nike's (NKE) stock. Shares of the athleticwear giant plunged more than 10% in premarket trading on Wednesday despite better-than-expected fiscal third quarter earnings late Tuesday. The company's ticker page was the most active on Yahoo Finance. There were a host of red flags in the quarter and on the earnings call, and the Street appears to be clinging to them the morning after. An obvious one is continued pressure on Nike's lucrative China business. Sales in China fell 10% from the prior year, with digital sales down 21% and wholesale off by 13%. "Greater China, too, will benefit from a more local approach and closer connection with the consumer on the ground," Nike CEO Elliott Hill said on the earnings call. "We have become clearer on the structural challenges in China and the channel dynamics in the marketplace. We are taking action to clean the marketplace, tighten execution across digital and physical retail and rebuild the brand locally through sport." The other point of contention is guidance. For Nike's fiscal fourth quarter (the current quarter), management reported it expects sales down 2% to 4% and gross profit margins down 25 to 75 basis points. Citi analyst Paul Lejuez calculated Nike's guidance equates to fourth quarter earnings per share guidance of $0.05 to $0.15, below consensus forecasts for $0.20. Some analysts had earnings per share estimates well above $0.20 for the current quarter, Yahoo Finance data shows. What's more, Nike said over the next nine months it expects a low-single digit percentage sales decline and earnings to be "flattish." "Patience is required here ... work in progress," Jefferies analyst Randy Konik wrote in a note. Here is a checklist of other things I would be watching on Nike moving forward: The pivot point: Management pointed to spring 2027 as the moment when the company's sportswear and lifestyle offerings will begin to reflect its "Sport Offense Plan." What this essentially means is that these more sport-inspired products have to be a hit with consumers, as they reflect Nike's efforts to ramp up innovation and have its teams work faster and collaborate more. What this also means is that sales in these important categories could be mixed at best over the next few quarters, leading up to this pivot point. The state of the Nike shopper: Fall order books appear to be "growing," Nike signaled on the earnings call. It's important that this forward-looking demand indicator stays "growing" in the face of rising gas prices and a more uncertain consumer in the wake of the US war on Iran. "Management indicated that they have not seen consumer impact in North America from conflict in the Middle East, but indicated higher potential costs are being monitored closely because of the significant potential impact to gross margin," Citi's Lejuez said. Better days for Europe: Nike didn't have a great quarter in Europe, its second-largest market. Sales fell 7%, with Nike Direct sales down 13% and digital sales down by 6%. Management flagged sportswear sell-through below sell-in expectations, higher promotions, and Middle East-related traffic disruption. The company anticipates exiting its fiscal fourth quarter with elevated inventory in Europe. The sportswear category is performing the worst, with running sales strong. Suffice it to say, the business likely has to inflect for Nike's stock to work higher again. Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance