Argus

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Apr 01, 2026

Market Outlook

Bullish

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Short

Summary

The first quarter of 2025 on Wall Street is in the books. The S&P 500, which started higher in January, slumped in February and March and is down 4.6% for the year to date. The quarter is typically a positive one for equities, as the average gain for the period since 1980 has been 2.0%.  Stocks historically have risen in 1Q about two-thirds (64%) of the time.  But just because the first quarter was forgettable, doesn't mean the full year will be a wipe out. Going back to 1980, there have been 16 negative first quarters, during which stocks declined an average 6.2%. But in more than half of those years, stocks finished with positive annual returns. The average gain for the recovery years was 14.7%. April historically is the second-best month of the year. The average gain for the S&P 500 in the month since 1980 is 1.5%. We note that market returns in April have exceeded 5% on eight occasions since 1980, including a 9.4% gain in 2009 as the market was beginning to recover from the financial crisis, a 12.7% surge in 2020 as the market started to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, and a 5.1% gain in 2021 as COVID-19 vaccines rolled out. There have been some clunkers, including 2002 (-6.1%), 2000 (-3.1%) and 1981 (-2.3%). Last year in April, stocks slumped 2.2%, before the bull market returned in May. April is a busy month on Wall Street, as companies

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